The economic research institutes of the Joint Economic Forecast Project Group presented their spring report today. For this year, they expect a price-adjusted decline in gross domestic product of 4.2 per cent. According to their assessment, the economy will gradually recover after the current lockdown measures have been lifted. The researchers expect a strong increase in gross domestic product of 5.8 per cent as early as next year.
said: “The figures issued today by the Joint Economic Forecast Project Group affirm me in my assessment of the economic outlook. It is becoming apparent that a considerable decline in economic output is to be expected. After ten years of economic growth, we will experience an economic recession this year. However, the figures from the economic research institutes also show very clearly that our measures, especially short-time work, are working and help to limit the rise in unemployment. The future economic development will depend largely on how long it will take until the inevitable measures that had to be taken to protect the health and lives of our citizens can be scaled back again. This is why any forecasts at this point involve a high degree of uncertainty, as has been pointed out by the researchers themselves. At the end of April, I will present the spring forecast to the German Government.”
The institutes are expecting the German economy to see a sharp downturn as a result of the pandemic. This will lead to a recession which will also affect the labour market. Short-time work in particular is temporarily increasing very strongly. Due to the necessary fiscal stabilisation measures, the overall public-sector budget will reach a record deficit of 159 billion euros this year.
The Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy is expected to present the Federal Government's spring projection on 29 April.