said: “The German economy is maintaining its momentum, the upswing is continuing. Our exports are performing well in a rapidly growing world economy. Companies are investing heavily in new machines and plant and our citizens are participating in the upswing: incomes will continue to rise significantly in the coming years. Employment will increase by another million people in 2019 and unemployment will fall to a new record low. These are important steps towards full employment.”
- The global economy is likely to develop rapidly, even though - according to estimates by international organisations - the momentum in our sales markets will somewhat weaken next year. Exports of goods and services are therefore expected to grow considerably.
- Imports will also increase significantly due to strong domestic demand. In purely arithmetical terms, therefore, no significant contributions to growth are to be expected in foreign trade.
- Germany's current account balance will continue to fall, albeit only slightly, to 7.5 % of the GDP in 2019.
- Corporate investments, which recently have already risen sharply given the strong global economy and well utilized capacities, will remain dynamic.
- Construction investments remain strong in view of low interest rates and high demand on the market. However, the construction industry is increasingly reaching its capacity limits.
- Employment will increase by nearly 1 million people in 2019 and unemployment will fall to a new all-time low. At the same time, income levels will rise significantly. This also lays the foundation for dynamic consumer demand.
- Consumer prices will return to normal after the oil-price-induced downturn. They will increase at rates of 1.8% this year and 2.0% next year.
- Overall, the level of capacity utilisation in the German economy is excessive, but there is no sign of the economy overheating.
The final consultations on the Federal Government’s spring projection were concluded on 25 April 2018 within the framework of the Interministerial Working Group on Macroeconomic Forecasting, which is chaired by the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy. The Federal Statistical Office and the Deutsche Bundesbank were also involved.
The key macroeconomic figures contained in the spring projection form the basis for the tax revenue forecast, compiled in Mainz on 9-11 May 2018. These figures provide a general framework for drafting the budgets of the Federal Government, the Länder, municipalities and social insurance funds.