The economic development is essentially split: a robust domestic economy – bolstered by rising incomes, tax relief and dynamic public-sector spending – contrasts with the cyclical weakness of export-oriented industry. In the course of the year, however, industrial production is also likely to slowly recover. The headwinds from the external economic environment will weaken as global trade recovers. In the course of the year, the cyclical dynamism of the German economy is likely to increase significantly.
Three times a year, the Federal Government submits a projection for Germany’s overall economic development under the lead responsibility of the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy. The annual projection is published by the Federal Government each January as part of the Annual Economic Report. The spring and autumn projections serve as a basis for the Working Party on Tax Revenue Forecasting to estimate the tax revenues. The budgets of the Federal Government, the Länder, municipalities and social insurance funds are based on the key overall economic figures that are forecast. The information provided to the European Union in the context of the Stability and Growth Pact is also based on these projections.
The Federal Government forecasts short-term and medium-term economic development and the production potential. These estimates serve as the basis for the calculation of the maximum annual net new borrowing in the context of the 'debt brake' under Articles 109 and 115 of the German Basic Law. You can find projections from preceding years in the Archive (in German).
For the most recent estimate contained in the 2020 annual projection, please click here.
Key figures of the 2020 annual projection
| Macroeconomic trends in the Federal Republic of Germany [1] | 2019 | Annual projection
2020 |
|---|
| Percentage change on preceding year unless indicated otherwise |
| OUTPUT side of gross domestic product (GDP) | |
| GDP (price-adjusted) | 0,6 | 1,1 |
| Gainfully active persons (domestic) | 0,9 | 0,4 |
| GDP per gainfully active person | -0,3 | 0,7 |
| GDP per hour worked | 0,1 | 0,2 |
| For information purposes: | 0,0 | 0,0 |
| Unemployment rate in % (according to ESA) [2] | 3,0 | 2,9 |
| Unemployment rate in % (as defined by Federal Employment Agency) [2] | 5,0 | 5,0 |
| GDP by EXPENDITURE in current prices (nominal) | |
| Consumption expenditure | |
| Private households and private non-profit-making organisations | 2,9 | 2,7 |
| Public sector | 5,0 | 4,5 |
| Gross fixed capital formation | 5,4 | 4,6 |
| Changes in inventories and net acquisition of valuables (€ bn) | -10,6 | -12,6 |
| Domestic demand | 2,9 | 3,5 |
| Net foreign demand (€ bn) | 207,8 | 196,1 |
| Net foreign demand (in % of GDP) [7] | 6,0 | 5,5 |
| Gross domestic product (nominal) | 2,7 | 2,9 |
| GDP by EXPENDITURE in price-adjusted terms (real) | |
| Consumption expenditure | |
| Private households and private non-profit-making organisations | 1,6 | 1,3 |
| Public sector | 2,5 | 2,3 |
| Gross fixed capital formation | 2,5 | 1,7 |
| Machinery and equipment | 0,4 | 0,6 |
| Construction | 3,8 | 2,1 |
| Other investment | 2,7 | 3,0 |
| Changes in inventories and net acquisition of valuables (contribution to GDP growth) [3] | -0,9 | 0,0 |
| Domestic demand | 1,0 | 1,6 |
| Exports | 0,9 | 2,0 |
| Imports | 1,9 | 3,2 |
| Net foreign demand (contribution to GDP growth) [3] | -0,4 | -0,4 |
| Gross domestic product (real) | 0,6 | 1,1 |
| Price trend (2015 = 100) | |
| Consumption expenditure by private households [4] | 1,3 | 1,4 |
| Domestic demand | 1,8 | 1,9 |
| Gross domestic product [5] | 2,2 | 1,8 |
INCOME side of gross national income (GNI)
| |
| (Resident concept) | |
| Employee remuneration | 4,5 | 3,5 |
| Corporate and investment income | -2,9 | 1,2 |
| National income | 2,3 | 2,9 |
| Gross national income | 2,9 | 2,9 |
| For information purposes (resident concept): | |
| Employees | 1,2 | 0,7 |
| Gross wages and salaries | 4,4 | 3,4 |
| Gross wages and salaries per person employed | 3,2 | 2,7 |
| Disposable income of private households | 2,8 | 2,8 |
| Savings ratio in % [6] | 10,9 | 11,0 |
[1] Up to 2019 provisional figures from the Federal Statistical Office; current as at January 2020
[2] In relation to the total labour force
[3] Absolute change (stocks/external balance) in % of GDP in preceding year (= contribution to change in GDP)
[4] Year-on-year changes in the consumer price index: 2019: 1.4%; 2020: 1.5%
[5] Year-on-year changes in unit labour costs per person employed: 2019: 3.6%; 2020: 2.2%
[6] Savings in % of disposable income of private households, including occupational pensions claims
[7] Current-account balance: 2019: +7.4%; 2020: +6.7%
