The German economy is is currently experiencing a slow period. After a good start to 2019 with gross domestic product rising by 0.4% in price-adjusted terms, overall economic output fell by 0.1% in the second quarter. A stronger downturn or even a pronounced recession is currently not to be expected. However, indicators are not suggesting a major change for the better as yet. The export-oriented German industry is continuing to suffer from declining world trade and stagnating global industrial activity. In the second quarter, exports to the European Union and the United Kingdom in particular declined noticeably. The domestic economy will not remain unaffected by this, but has proved to be quite robust so far. Important domestic upward forces are continuing to have an effect, albeit to a somewhat lesser extent. Private and public-sector consumer demand as well as demand for construction services are providing a steady boost to the economy. The uncertainty caused by the trade conflicts and the Brexit process is continuing. However, the global economy is gradually adjusting to the new situation while entrepreneurs are continuing to explore new business opportunities.
Three times a year, the Federal Government submits a projection of the overall economic development in Germany under the lead responsibility of the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy. The annual projection is published by the Federal Government each January as part of the Annual Economic Report. The spring and autumn projections serve as a basis for the Working Party on Tax Revenue Forecasting to estimate the tax revenues. The budgets of the Federal Government, the Länder, municipalities and social insurance funds are based on the forecast key overall economic figures. The information provided to the European Union in the context of the Stability and Growth Pact is also based on these projections.
The Federal Government forecasts the economic development in the short term and in the medium term and the production potential. These estimates serve as the basis for the calculation of the maximum annual net new borrowing in the context of the 'debt brake' under Articles 109 and 115 of the German Basic Law. You can find projections from preceding years in the .
You can find the current estimates from the Annual Economic Report .
Overview of 2019 spring projection
Selected key figures for macroeconomic trends in the Federal Republic of Germany 
|GDP by expenditure (adjusted for price) ||2018||2019||2020|
|Percentage change on preceding year|
|Gross domestic product||1.4||0.5||1.5|
|Gross fixed capital formation||2.6||2.2||2.8|
|- of which equipment||4.2||2.0||3.0|
|Other investment||11 April 2016||1.4||1.7|
|Changes in inventories and net acquisition of valuables (contribution to GDP growth) ||0.6||11 April 2016||0.0|
|External balance of goods and services (contribution to GDP growth) ||-0.4||-0.8||-0.2|
|Private consumption ||1.6||1.4||1.7|
|Gross domestic product||1.9||2.3||2.0|
|Gainfully active persons (in Germany)||1.3||1.1||0.8|
|For information purposes only:|
|Consumer price index||1.8||1.5||1.8|
|absolute figures (millions)|
|Gainfully active persons (domestic)||44.8||45.3||45.7|
|Unemployed persons (Federal Employment Agency)||2.34||2.20||2.11|
Up to 2018 provisional figures from the Federal Statistical Office; as of February 2019
 Including non-profit-making organisations
 Absolute change (stocks/external balance) in per cent of pre-year GDP (= contribution to change in GDP).