According to the indicators, the German economy remains fairly flat in the final quarter of the year. However, there are some first glimmers of hope. In the third quarter, economic output rose only marginally, by 0.1% from the preceding quarter. In the services and construction sectors, growth remains solid, mainly driven by domestic factors. However, industry is continuing to suffer from the low global level of investment, triggered not least by the trade conflicts. It is probably yet to bottom out, but its new orders and turnover have stabilised at a low level in recent months. The same goes for the business climate, in which the expectations brightened somewhat in October and November. Not least, exports have picked up speed since the middle of the year. All of this suggests that the industrial sector is gradually stabilising and might even see a slight uptick from the new year. Naturally, the uncertainties remain high in view of the difficult external economic environment, and it therefore is necessary to wait and see the extent to which the fragile positive signals firm up.
For more information about the economic situation in December, please click here.
