The German economy remains soft. Its level of economic activity is currently stuck at roughly the existing level. The fall in value creation in industry, which remains on a downward path, is largely offset by growth in services and construction. The relevant cyclical indicators do not yet signal a fundamental change in the cyclical situation. However, a stronger downturn or even a pronounced recession is currently not to be expected. The export-oriented German industry continues to be faced with weak global trade, flat global industrial output, and a global softening of demand for vehicles. This is affecting the propensity to invest in Germany and feeding through to domestic demand for intermediate and capital goods. The impact on the less export-dependent parts of the domestic economy has so far been relatively small. At the same time, private and public-sector consumer demand as well as demand for construction services are providing a steady boost to the economy.
Three times a year, the Federal Government submits a projection of Germany’s overall economic development under the lead responsibility of the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy. The annual projection is published by the Federal Government each January as part of the Annual Economic Report. The spring and autumn projections serve as a basis for the Working Party on Tax Revenue Forecasting to estimate the tax revenues. The budgets of the Federal Government, the Länder, municipalities and social insurance funds are based on the forecast key overall economic figures. The information provided to the European Union in the context of the Stability and Growth Pact is also based on these projections.
The Federal Government forecasts the economic development in the short term and in the medium term and the production potential. These estimates serve as the basis for the calculation of the maximum annual net new borrowing in the context of the 'debt brake' under Articles 109 and 115 of the German Basic Law. You can find projections from preceding years in the .
You can find the current estimates from the Annual Economic Report .
Overview of 2019 autumn projection
Selected key figures for macroeconomic trends in the Federal Republic of Germany 
|GDP by expenditure (adjusted for price) ||2018||2019||2020|
|Percentage change on preceding year|
|Gross domestic product||1.5||0.5||1.0|
|Gross fixed capital formation||3.5||2.5||1.9|
|- of which equipment||4.4||0.6||1.0|
|Changes in inventories and net acquisition of valuables (contribution to GDP growth) ||0.3||-0.6||0.0|
|External balance of goods and services (contribution to GDP growth) ||-0.4||-0.6||-0.4|
|Private consumption ||1.5||1.4||1.5|
|Gross domestic product||1.5||2.3||1.9|
|Gainfully active persons (in Germany)||1.4||0.8||0.3|
|For information purposes only:|
|Consumer price index||1.8||1.5||1.6|
|absolute figures (millions)|
|Gainfully active persons (domestic)||44.9||45.2||45.4|
|Unemployed persons (Federal Employment Agency)||2.34||2.27||2.31|
Up to 2019 provisional figures from the Federal Statistical Office; as of August 2019;
In 2020, calendar-adjusted growth is 0.6%, the rate over the course of the year is 1.1%;
 Including non-profit-making organisations;
 Absolute change in net foreign demand in per cent of pre-year GDP (= contribution to change in GDP).