Following the surprisingly strong growth of the German economy in the first quarter, the current cyclical indicators point to a subdued development in the second quarter. The signals from the service sector suggest that the strong growth at the beginning of the year will slow down somewhat in the second quarter. In addition, industry continues to experience a period of weak growth. While industrial output has recently recovered somewhat at a low level, it has been showing a downward trend since the turn of the year 2017/18. The weak development of new manufacturing orders and the gloomier business climate indicate that the clearly subdued trend in industrial activity is likely to continue. Recently, the construction industry also recorded a sharp decline in output, albeit from a very high level. Even though the labour market is starting to show signs of the economic slowdown, it keeps producing noticeable domestic economic momentum. The number of people in work is continuing to rise, albeit at a slower pace, and income rises are bolstering consumer spending. The government is providing fiscal stimuli, thereby fostering both consumer spending and public spending on consumption and investment. Following restrained growth in the second quarter, the positive forces for growth are likely to prevail again as soon as the global economic environment improves. However, the economy is currently facing considerable downside risks, not least due to trade conflicts, the Brexit process and geopolitical tensions.
Three times a year, the Federal Government submits a projection of the overall economic development in Germany under the lead responsibility of the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy. The annual projection is published by the Federal Government each January as part of the Annual Economic Report. The spring and autumn projections serve as a basis for the Working Party on Tax Revenue Forecasting to estimate the tax revenues. The budgets of the Federal Government, the Länder, municipalities and social insurance funds are based on the forecast key overall economic figures. The information provided to the European Union in the context of the Stability and Growth Pact is also based on these projections.
The Federal Government forecasts the economic development in the short term and in the medium term and the production potential. These estimates serve as the basis for the calculation of the maximum annual net new borrowing in the context of the 'debt brake' under Articles 109 and 115 of the German Basic Law. You can find projections from preceding years in the .
You can find the current estimates from the Annual Economic Report .
Overview of 2019 spring projection
Selected key figures for macroeconomic trends in the Federal Republic of Germany 
|GDP by expenditure (adjusted for price) ||2018||2019||2020|
|Percentage change on preceding year|
|Gross domestic product||1.4||0.5||1.5|
|Gross fixed capital formation||2.6||2.2||2.8|
|- of which equipment||4.2||2.0||3.0|
|Other investment||11 April 2016||1.4||1.7|
|Changes in inventories and net acquisition of valuables (contribution to GDP growth) ||0.6||11 April 2016||0.0|
|External balance of goods and services (contribution to GDP growth) ||-0.4||-0.8||-0.2|
|Private consumption ||1.6||1.4||1.7|
|Gross domestic product||1.9||2.3||2.0|
|Gainfully active persons (in Germany)||1.3||1.1||0.8|
|For information purposes only:|
|Consumer price index||1.8||1.5||1.8|
|absolute figures (millions)|
|Gainfully active persons (domestic)||44.8||45.3||45.7|
|Unemployed persons (Federal Employment Agency)||2.34||2.20||2.11|
Up to 2018 provisional figures from the Federal Statistical Office; as of February 2019
 Including non-profit-making organisations
 Absolute change (stocks/external balance) in per cent of pre-year GDP (= contribution to change in GDP).