Three times a year, the Federal Government submits a projection of Germany’s overall economic development under the lead responsibility of the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy. The annual projection is published by the Federal Government each January as part of the Annual Economic Report. The spring and autumn projections serve as a basis for the Working Party on Tax Revenue Forecasting to estimate the tax revenues. The budgets of the Federal Government, the Länder, municipalities and social insurance funds are based on the forecast key overall economic figures. The information provided to the European Union in the context of the Stability and Growth Pact is also based on these projections.
The Federal Government forecasts the economic development in the short term and in the medium term and the production potential. These estimates serve as the basis for the calculation of the maximum annual net new borrowing in the context of the 'debt brake' under Articles 109 and 115 of the German Basic Law. You can find projections from preceding years in the Archive (in German).
You can find the current estimates from the Annual Economic Report here.
Overview of 2019 autumn projection
Selected key figures for macroeconomic trends in the Federal Republic of Germany [1]
| GDP by expenditure (adjusted for price) [1] | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
| Percentage change on preceding year |
| Gross domestic product | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| Private consumption | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Public-sector consumption | 1.3 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| Gross fixed capital formation | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.9 |
| - of which equipment | 4.4 | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| - buildings | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.2 |
| Other investment | 4.3 | 2.5 | 3.0 |
| Changes in inventories and net acquisition of valuables (contribution to GDP growth) [3] | 0.3 | -0.6 | 0.0 |
| Domestic demand | 2.1 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Exports | 2.1 | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Imports | 3.6 | 2.6 | 3.3 |
| External balance of goods and services (contribution to GDP growth) [3] | -0.4 | -0.6 | -0.4 |
| Price trend: | | | |
| Private consumption [2] | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Gross domestic product | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.9 |
| Gainfully active persons (in Germany) | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| For information purposes only: | | | |
| Consumer price index | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| absolute figures (millions) |
| Gainfully active persons (domestic) | 44.9 | 45.2 | 45.4 |
| Unemployed persons (Federal Employment Agency) | 2.34 | 2.27 | 2.31 |
[1]Up to 2019 provisional figures from the Federal Statistical Office; as of August 2019;
[2]In 2020, calendar-adjusted growth is 0.6%, the rate over the course of the year is 1.1%;
[3] Including non-profit-making organisations;
[4] Absolute change in net foreign demand in per cent of pre-year GDP (= contribution to change in GDP).
